My thoughts for November:

The first half of November should be milder than average with slightly below normal Precip. As we approach Mid month a pattern change is likely to begin, with a colder and more stormy profile for the central and Eastern US.
Below normal temps can be expected for much of the second half of the month. A minor snow event is possible for parts of the Delaware Valley during this second half of November.

I'm forecasting November to be near to slightly below normal with Temps:
This for the NE and much of the M/A states.

For PHL:
November 2011 =
Temps: 0.0 F to -2.0 F
Precip: Near to Above Normal

Ruggie

The changes coming towards mid month will be GRADUAL and take some time ! The coldest weather or bigger depatures of below normal temperatures will come towards months end.

The NAO and AO are heading slightly negative towards mid month and should go more negative later in the month. The PNA is also heading negative for a time, during the mid month period, so this will try to keep a trough out west as well.

Some indications of blocking near Greenland are showing up on the models towards mid-month. This jives pretty good with the NAO/AO couplet heading down some at that time, so the models are seeing this feature with some Blocking.

Ruggie

NAO



AO



PNA

Some blocking developing but notice the troughs in the west and NE due to slightly Neg teleconnections I've indicated for the Atlantic and Pacific shown on the Euro. Then GFS is showing a huge trough over Central and Eastern US by mid month, pretty good blocking indicated as well.

EURO Nov 11th


GFS: Nov 14th

EPICEDNESS TA DA... WHOOT WHOOT

I know this is like 14 days out but very consistant !

Classic Greenland Block and split flow pattern ! Yummy
Nice trough between Central and Eastern US during this timeframe and blocking setup. Some cross polar flow getting established. Nice fresh cold Canadian air, on the way near mid month !

The expected pattern change for near mid month is now looking Bleek !

NAO and AO are just too flat lined at Neutral and the PNA is really going Negative !

This would place the mean trough over the western and central CONUS with a ridge in the east. The models are now showing this trough in the west and ridge in the east towards mid month, with a blow torch and 576 heights into the northern M/A and huge SE Ridge for several days. We could hit upper 60's to low 70 during this time.

If we do see a pattern change it looks delayed by 10-15 days or more towards December. My November outlook could be a bust as above normal temps are looking more likely than the 0 to -2 that I forecasted, > thanks Steve ! You're a jinx

Pattern changes always get pushed back. I wouldn't expect one until late November.

The Ensemble forecast has a -NAO and a -AO by midmonth but a -PNA. Even if the NAO and AO are negative, the -PNA will hurt us.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ ... are.pn.png

I agree Ant !

The good thing is the PNA does start coming back up towards the end of the period, though still Negative, not as much. The NAO and AO are slightly negative in the long run, so this tells me the pattern change is more likely the end of the month or towards the beginning of December.

I'd rather see it happen at that time anyway !

Lets hope we get a December to remember, while Jeffro gets nothing

"Lets hope we get a December to remember, while Jeffro gets nothing "

Not happening A-Man, I may see more snow in December/to mid January, then you see all winter. Book it Ruggo.

Ant, let Jeffro talk his smack again, we know what happened the last time !


Pattern change:
Nor'Easters and coastals for the M/A and NE with P.sunny in Euclid ! Lakes Flash freeze and no LES ! COLD AND DRY for Euclid OH

12z GFS backed off the blow torch, but still somewhat above normal, shows nice cold shot and trough around the 17th-19th, so not as bad. A Progressive pattern with nothing really locking in through the 15 day period. Not a bad shot of colder air next weekend either.

I think the models are having some problems right now, trying to figure out the Mid Range, but we need to keep a close eye on teleconnections over the next week. I still see some blocking which is good, so not chalking anything off right now. Could just be a 3-7 day delay and occur more towards the 20th of the month. At least the 70 degree temps aren't on the 12z GFS run, warmest looks to be a couple days in the low 60's which Isn't too much above normal. Many days in the 50's which is at least normal.

Don't worry all you folks in Ruggie World, when we get The Appalachian runner I will provide some cool videos and pics for you to enjoy in the cold rain.